Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the former finance minister of France who was recently appointed managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is planning to close the fund’s representative office in Brussels and move it to Paris.
[Read More:European Voice]
Friday, February 29, 2008
Strauss-Kahn to close IMF’s Brussels office
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Communiqué du Conseil d'Administration de la Banque Centrale de Tunisie, réuni le 28 février 2008
L’environnement international continue à être caractérisé, au début de l’année en cours, par la montée des craintes concernant les perspectives de la croissance mondiale dans un contexte de nette décélération de l’activité économique aux Etats-Unis et dans les autres pays industrialisés, conjuguée à la persistance de la volatilité des marchés des changes et financiers et l’aggravation des tensions inflationnistes.
Ces évolutions ont amené la plupart des analystes à réviser à la baisse leurs estimations de la croissance mondiale pour l’année 2008. A cet égard, le Fonds monétaire international a revu ses prévisions de 4,8% à 4,1%. Cette baisse concernera aussi bien les pays développés que les pays émergents.
En outre, le taux de change du dollar a connu une forte baisse pour atteindre son plus bas niveau vis-à-vis de l’euro qui a dépassé, pour la première fois, 1,51 dollar. Les marchés financiers mondiaux ont également été marqués par la contraction des liquidités et la hausse des marges de financement, surtout pour les pays émergents.
Sur le plan national, les données disponibles montrent une poursuite de la progression des exportations de biens et services. Cependant, la conjoncture mondiale instable et la persistance de la hausse des prix des hydrocarbures et des autres produits de base recèlent des tensions qui nécessitent la poursuite des efforts pour y faire face afin de préserver les équilibres en maintenant le déficit budgétaire et celui de la balance des paiements courants et le taux d’inflation à des niveaux acceptables. A cet effet, il s’avère indispensable d’œuvrer à optimiser l’exploitation des capacités disponibles, notamment dans le tourisme, l’industrie et les services, à maîtriser les coûts , à améliorer la productivité et à intensifier les flux des investissements extérieurs.
Au niveau monétaire, la masse monétaire a connu une quasi-stabilité, au cours de janvier 2008 et le taux d’intérêt moyen du marché monétaire s’est élevé à 5,27%.
Pour ce qui est de l’inflation, l’indice général des prix à la consommation familiale s’est accru de 0,4% entre décembre 2007 et janvier 2008, sous l’effet des tensions inflationnistes mondiales. Encore faut-il rappeler que la Banque Centrale a déjà pris les mesures monétaires appropriées pour réguler la liquidité bancaire, en particulier le relèvement du taux de la réserve obligatoire à 5%.
Quant à l’évolution du dinar sur le marché des changes, depuis le début de l’année et jusqu’au 26 février courant, elle fait ressortir une hausse du dinar de 0,7% vis-à-vis du dollar américain et une dépréciation de 0,3% par rapport à l’euro.
A la lumière de ces évolutions, le Conseil d’Administration a mis l’accent sur la nécessité d’assurer un suivi continu de la conjoncture internationale et de ses éventuelles répercussions sur l’évolution de l’économie nationale et des équilibres globaux et décide de maintenir inchangé le taux d’intérêt directeur de la Banque Centrale.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
IMF aims to win over critics in Africa
"OUAGADOUGOU (Reuters) - There were no crowds waving flags on the dusty streets of Ouagadougou, unusually for an African summit, but then many in Africa feel the arrival of the International Monetary Fund is nothing to cheer about."
[Read More:Reuters.com]
FT.com / World - IMF ‘must reform to remain relevant’
"The US stepped up its call for reform of the International Monetary Fund on Monday, calling for a shake-up of its executive board as well as its shareholding structure to give greater weight to emerging economies.
David McCormick, the undersecretary for international affairs at the US Treasury, proposed cutting the number of executive directors from 24 to 20 and eliminating the rule that reserves positions for the US, Japan, Germany, France and Britain. The proposal is likely to result in fewer European directors on the IMF board."
More:
"In the early phase of the credit crisis, the IMF was largely sidelined by the US and other industrialised nations, which gave the lead role in developing the global regulatory response to the Financial Stability Forum.
However, IMF insiders believe that the Group of Seven leading economies now recognise the importance of giving a more prominent role to the fund, which has a wider global membership and involves finance ministries as well as central bankers and regulators."
[Read More:FT.com]
Monday, February 25, 2008
Good to Know : Web 2.0
Today's my selection of "Good to Know" is Web 2.0:
Web 2.0 is a trend in World Wide Web technology, and web design, a second generation of web-based communities and hosted services such as social-networking sites, wikis, blogs, and folksonomies, which aim to facilitate creativity, collaboration, and sharing among users. The term became notable after the first O'Reilly Media Web 2.0 conference in 2004.[2][3]
Although the term suggests a new version of the World Wide Web, it does not refer to an update to any technical specifications, but to changes in the ways software developers and end-users use webs.
[Read More : Web 2.0 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Remarks by Treasury Assistant Secretary for International Affairs Clay
Lowery at Barclays Capital’s 12th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference
The Role of Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Global Economy
"As for sovereign wealth funds, I would also suggest four guiding policy principles. First, invest commercially, not politically. Sovereign wealth fund investment decisions should be based solely on economic grounds, rather than political or foreign policy considerations. Sovereign wealth funds should make this statement a formal part of their basic investment management policies. Second, convey world-class institutional integrity. Sovereign wealth funds should be transparent about their investment policies and have strong risk-management systems, governance structures, and internal controls. Although not highly leveraged and, in principle, long-term investors, sovereign wealth funds can represent large, concentrated, and opaque positions and thus may cause worries of systemic risk. Third, compete fairly with the private sector. Sovereign wealth funds should be careful not to be seen as having an unfair advantage in competing with the private sector for transactions, including by financing acquisitions at below-market rates. Finally, respect host-country rules. Sovereign wealth funds should comply with and be subject to all applicable regulatory and disclosure requirements of the countries in which they invest.
These principles will help inform the international dialogue on the issues raised by sovereign wealth funds. The principles also provide a framework for thinking about what we believe is the most appropriate international response to these issues: multilaterally-agreed best practices for sovereign wealth funds and for the countries in which they invest.
Last year, the United States proposed, along with other nations, that the IMF identify a set of voluntary best practices for sovereign wealth funds. This work, I am pleased to say, is already underway in the Fund. Building on existing IMF guidelines for the management of foreign exchange reserves, best practices could cover the overall objectives and principles of sovereign wealth funds, their institutional arrangements, their risk-management frameworks, and their transparency and accountability. Best practices would provide guidance to new funds seeking to make sound decisions on how to structure themselves, mitigate any potential systemic risk, and help demonstrate to critics that sovereign wealth funds will continue to be constructive, responsible participants in the international financial system."
[Read More:Full Text]
Here another piece on SWFs:
RGE - Sovereign Wealth Funds as Development Funders
Remarks by Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs on IMF Reform
"My argument today is straightforward. The IMF must reform to remain relevant. The world economy is constantly changing, and the IMF must now change with it, as it has successfully done in the past. At the highest level, the IMF's core mission remains promoting an open and growing world economy and the smooth functioning of the international monetary and financial system. It must adapt how it performs this mission, to a world marked by rapid technological transformation, the rising economic weight of emerging markets, and the increasing internationalization of financial markets. To remain relevant, the IMF must take three important steps:
First, the IMF needs to evolve how it performs its mission to meet the forward-looking challenges of the international monetary system.
Second, it needs to reform its governance structure to reflect the growing weight of dynamic emerging markets in the global economy.
Third, the IMF needs to change its operating model to reflect its new mission, ensure ongoing budget discipline, and put in place sustainable sources of income."
[Read More:Full Text]
FT.com - We must curb international flows of capital
By Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian
First large downhill flows of capital – from rich countries to poor countries – led to the Latin American debt crisis of the early 1980s. In the 1990s similar flows begat the Asian financial crisis.
Since 2002 the flows have been uphill, from emerging markets and oil-exporting countries to the developed world, especially the US. But the outcome has not been very different. So, it does not seem to matter how capital flows. That it flows in sufficiently large quantities across borders – the celebrated phenomenon of financial globalisation – seems to spell trouble.
[Read More:FT.com]
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Marginal Revolution: Should the IMF behave like a Sovereign Wealth Fund?
A healthy discussion on the role of the Fund. I like the following comment:
There's a crazy disconnect here between the IMF's problem of having to cut its staffing levels by 15% and talk of a $100 billion investment fund. I don't know how many staff the IMF has, but if they're paying them a total of something like $5 billion a year, then it has too many.
I suspect that talk of staff cuts is a way of justifying something that someone wants for quite different (and probably more sinister) reasons.
Deal on IMF voting formula likely in April
WASHINGTON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - International Monetary Fund member countries are expected to take an important step in giving emerging economic powers more say in the global financial institution by approving a new voting formula in April, IMF board officials say.
The proposed formula will be presented to the IMF board of member countries before March 15, before a meeting of global finance chiefs in Washington on April 12-13.
[Read More:Reuters]
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Speech: Asia's Interests in IMF Reform
by Edwin M. Truman, Peterson Institute
Remarks at the High-Level Dialogue on Asian Perspectives on the
Future Role of the International Monetary Fund
Singapore
January 18, 2008
[Source : Petersoninstitute.org]
It is a pleasure to return again to Singapore to participate in this dialogue on Asian perspectives on the future role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). I thank the organizers from the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung and the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore for inviting me.
From the mid-1990s until 2001, I spent a considerable amount of time in Asia when I was an official of the Federal Reserve and US Treasury. This background may qualify or disqualify me from understanding of Asian perspectives on the IMF, but I necessarily speak from that experience as well as from more than 35 years of interaction with, and observation of, the Fund. However, I do not speak for the US government. I left office seven years ago. These remarks are solely my views.
It is fitting that we are meeting here. Singapore has reaped enormous benefits over the past five decades from the increasing globalization and openness of the world economy and financial system. Although much of rhetoric in Asia today focuses on exciting trends toward increased regional integration, the simple fact is that Asia as a whole is more highly integrated with the global economy than any other region of the world.
In 2006, exports of emerging Asia to countries outside the Asian region still amounted to almost 25 percent of regional GDP compared with less that 15 percent for the EU-15 and about 5 percent for NAFTA. As of September 2007, the Asian region held about $3.75 trillion in international reserves, 60 percent of the global total, and almost $2 trillion in sovereign wealth funds, 40 percent of the world total. For individual countries, those reserves and other financial assets may be invested within the region, but the region as a whole is in current account surplus of more than 5 percent of GDP. This means that on balance the region’s excess of saving over investment must be invested outside the region.
It follows that the Asian region has an overriding self interest in the continued economic prosperity and financial stability of the entire world and, therefore, in strengthening the principal institution of global governance that is dedicated to sustaining and maintaining that prosperity and stability—the IMF.
Today, the Fund is under stress, threatening its capacity to play its assigned role. It faces an existential crisis, an identity crisis, a sharply reduced demand for its lending, and a lack of consensus about what its role in the global economic and financial system should be. The Fund’s past and present contributions are badly misunderstood in the United States as well as here in Asia. Over the past 60-plus years, the Fund has evolved constructively to deal with problems that, in effect, have been assigned to the IMF because it was there. I would submit that this approach is more efficient than creating an additional institution and bureaucracy every time a so-called “new problem” arises either globally or regionally.
Despite becoming the repository of worthy new initiatives, today the Fund’s major problem is that it has been phenomenally successful in discharging its fundamental mission. However, the Fund has not continued to evolve with the global economy and financial system over the past decade. At the same time, too many of the Fund’s principal shareholders have endeavored either to perpetuate the status quo or to reduce its role. Many other countries with growing stakes in the continued successful globalization of the world economy have turned their backs on the Fund. Over the past five years, both groups of countries have been lulled into complacency by the remarkably benign global economic and financial conditions that prevailed until about six months ago.
Consequently, the achievements in the IMF reform process, which has been underway for about three years, have been limited. One significant, but partial and minor, milestone was passed here in Singapore in September 2006 with agreement on a first stage of adjustments in IMF quotas. However, the risk now is that the expectations established 16 months ago will not be fulfilled. If they are disappointed, the damage to the Fund and the international economic and financial system will be lasting. It is difficult to exaggerate the collateral negative effects on the Asian economies that are highly dependent on the prosperity of the world economy.
The IMF faces twin crises of relevance and legitimacy. Managing Director Strauss-Kahn has acknowledged this reality, but he cannot resolve the IMF’s twin crises alone. He needs all the help he can get.
What needs to be done? In my view, the relevance agenda should include four elements: enhancing the IMF’s role in surveillance, modernizing its lending facilities, leaving broad issues of economic development to other better-qualified institutions, and revamping the IMF’s financial and business model. The legitimacy agenda should encompass five elements: management selection, internal governance, external accountability, realignment of representation on the executive board (what I call chairs), and redistribution of voting power within the Fund (what I call shares). I do not have time to cover each of these elements in detail; I will only hit the key points that, in my view, should be of greatest concern in the Asian region.
IMF surveillance activities are central to its mandate to promote sustainable economic growth and to maintain financial stability. Effective surveillance is a global public good. It is about coaxing and cajoling members to adopt and modify economic and financial policies in the national and global interest. In discharging this mission, the Fund (staff, management, and the executive board) should act forcefully to articulate the risks associated with unchanged policies and to monitor members’ compliance with global norms and obligations. It is not enough just to be a good friend to member governments.
For example, the Fund should be concerned about the resolution of global imbalances and the role of members’ exchange rate policies and other economic policies to ensure against the risk, even if small, that the resolution of global imbalances will undermine global prosperity. If there is a crisis in the global trading or financial system associated with disruptive global adjustment, the IMF will be, and should be, held responsible for failing to do its job.
As part of the reform process, the Fund has taken some tentative positive steps in this area. The role of the internal Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER) has been expanded and strengthened, and the internal Surveillance Committee has been revived. After almost two years of debate and discussion, unfortunately almost entirely conducted behind closed doors, the Executive Board agreed in June 2006 to revise the 1977 decision on surveillance of members’ exchange rate policies. It pointedly creates no new obligations for members, but it also fails to reinforce their current obligations. The sharply critical report by the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) of the IMF on IMF policy advice demonstrates that recent practice of the IMF management and the executive board has been to ignore those obligations.1 The new decision does introduce into bilateral surveillance a new concept of “external stability.”
Whether these reforms, which on paper appear to be modest, bring about real change and reinvigorate the Fund to discharge more effectively the surveillance responsibilities assigned to it in the Articles of Agreement remains to be seen. Asia as a region is home to some of the largest global imbalances as well as distortions among effective exchange rates within the region that are caused by the exchange rate regimes and policies adopted by the major regional players. It follows that this region’s continued prosperity crucially depends on the success of the IMF in this central area of its responsibility.
Representatives of many countries in Asia and around the world ask why the Fund is paying so much attention to their exchange rate policies and so little attention to the wide swings in the exchange rates among the major currencies and how they are affected by economic policies. This issue was also highlighted in the IEO report on IMF exchange rate policy advice. It noted that the most recent review by the executive board of the global system of exchange rates and its stability was in 1999. How have the management and executive board responded to this criticism? A review has been scheduled for 2009! This is highly disturbing.
In the multilateral area, the new decision on exchange rate surveillance explicitly sidesteps the injunction in the Articles that “the Fund shall oversee the international monetary system to ensure its effective operation.” Managing Director Rodrigo de Rato, in April 2006, did finally initiate a multilateral consultation process bringing together representatives of China, the euro area, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the United States to address global imbalances. The initiative was late but welcome. Its accomplishments fell far short of what was promised because of excessive timidity, unsound analysis (for example essentially ignoring the role that exchange rates play in the adjustment process), and lack of cooperation by the participants.
The only positive result for the Fund was one of process: The Fund dealt itself into the center of the international economic policy coordination business essentially for the first time since the collapse of Bretton Woods. However, as far as one can tell, the management of the Fund exerted no pressure on the participants to make new or more specific policy commitments, and none were put forward by the participants. The statements of policy intention were not new and not news; in some respects they were less explicit than those contained in the G-20 Accord for Sustained Growth issued in Melbourne, Australia, in November 2006. They envisage a process of “immaculate adjustment,” in other words adjustment without significant exchange rate changes. The only mention of exchange rates was by Saudi Arabia, which said that it would not alter its peg to the US dollar, and by China, which again said that its “exchange rate flexibility will gradually increase.” For the United States, Japan, and the euro area, there was no mention of exchange rate adjustment. This is not Hamlet without the Prince; it is Hamlet set in never-never land.
Turning to IMF lending, a year ago who would have thought that the world would now be facing a potential financial meltdown. The IMF is not the only institution that can help diagnose and deal with these problems, but at a minimum there are lessons to be learned; they will be lessons for countries and financial institutions around the world, and the IMF is the unique global institution positioned to assist in this educational process. Moreover, we are most likely facing a slowing of global growth by at least half a percentage point, if not worse. It is inevitable that there will be consequent, adverse external financial repercussions for some countries and the Fund will be back in the lending business on some scale.
IMF lending itself is also a public good. Its purpose is to mitigate the costs of crises and policy mistakes for the residents of the particular member country that is borrowing and for other members who would receive the adverse spillover effects if that particular member country had to adjust without the availability of external financial assistance. More than half the IMF’s 185 members do not have meaningful access to international capital markets. For about half of the remaining countries, access is intermittent, in particular for countercyclical borrowing. Although healthy on balance, the increased scope and scale of private financial markets means that the potential adverse economic and financial effects of inherently volatile private capital flows have increased not declined.
In this context, it is highly unfortunate that discussions have stalemated on the establishment of a new IMF liquidity instrument for market access countries. This is a vexed and contentious issue. In my view, if the Fund is to be relevant in the 21st century excessive concerns about moral hazard and short-term policy conditionality should be set aside and a facility should be established with the potential to make generous amounts of funding available to countries that have a record of sound policies.
Third, one area where the Fund is not centrally relevant is in the development business. Starting three decades ago, the IMF was pulled into long-term development lending. Over the past decade, the Fund has begun to extricate itself from this role. The recent report of the IEO on structural conditionality in IMF-supported programs concludes that more should be done.2 This does not mean that the IMF should stop providing policy advice to low-income members in areas of its expertise or should not provide short-term balance of payments financing (possibly on subsidized terms) to those members. It does mean that the Fund should avoid a deep programmatic or financial involvement in the development process where it has no comparative advantage.
Turning to the final point on the relevance agenda, let me offer a few words on the Fund’s financial and business model. There is no doubt in my mind that the size of the Fund’s staff can be reduced by 10 to 15 percent and the staff’s composition can be realigned without impairing the IMF’s capacity to continue to discharge its current and its likely expanded responsibilities. In a bureaucracy, it is appropriate to apply constant pressure to do more with less. It is a painful process. However, it is the principal way that efficiency and effectiveness are enhanced—doing more with less. During my almost 30 years at the Federal Reserve Board, I went through three major exercises in staff and budget reduction on the order of 10 percent on each occasion. The net result was that by 1998, when I left, the international staff was the same size that it was in 1972 when I joined the staff. Our responsibilities were vastly increased reflecting the increased salience for the US economy of global economic and financial conditions.
I also have no doubt that the Fund’s income model needs to shift away from a reliance on income from its lending operations, which absorb only about a quarter of its administrative expenses. The Crockett Report on sustainable long-term financing of the IMF lays out some attractive options. The risk is that the sensible reforms will be sidetracked by efforts to “starve the beast” of the IMF bureaucracy, as we say in Washington, or get hung up by other, political considerations.
Turning to the Fund’s legitimacy crisis, in my view this is the most serious set of issues facing the institution: The Fund is widely perceived to lack the kind of legitimacy that is necessary if it is to carry out its mission. This perception may not be well grounded—and it is probably exaggerated—but it is widespread and persistent. Something has to be done about that perception if the IMF is to overcome its existential crisis.
With respect to management selection, although some progress was made this fall toward overturning the convention on the nationality of the leaders of the Fund and the Bank, the reality was the same. However, this element of the legitimacy agenda does not start and end with the choice of the managing director. It would be desirable to develop a process of performance review for the incumbent, to reform the process for selecting the first deputy managing director and for selecting of the rest of the management team, only one of whom is from a developing country.
The issues with respect to the IMF’s internal governance are more complicated. The Fund is an international organization, its members are countries. Its structure was established more than 60 years ago with only modest modifications in the meantime despite a quadrupling of its membership and a wholesale transformation of best practices in public sector governance. The respective roles and responsibilities of the IMF governors, the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC), the management, and staff are ambiguous. Consequently, responsibilities are blurred. Radical change in this area is not a realistic possibility. However, constructive evolution is necessary. One can hope that the forthcoming IEO report on IMF Corporate Governance will contribute to this process. I have no doubt that the fulcrum for change lies in the executive board. The activities of the executive directors should be more focused, and management and staff should be given more responsibility along with an increase in their accountability.
Third, external accountability is a crucial complement to the IMF’s internal governance. Transparency is a key tool of accountability. Although the transparency of the Fund has increased substantially over the past decade, it is far from ideal. In my view, a principal obstacle to the greater transparency of the Fund and barrier to accountability is in the collective attitude of the executive directors, who sit astride the nexus between the work of the staff and the priorities and perspectives of the authorities who appointed or elected them. The credibility of the Fund is undermined by the paucity of information released to the general public about board positions taken by executive directors, policy guidance to the staff, and ongoing discussions of major policy issues such as those involved in reform of the quota formulas and revision of the 1977 decision on surveillance of exchange rate policies. However, the fault does not rest entirely with the executive board. It also is a disturbing symptom of attitudes of staff and management that the Fund’s new “communications strategy” focuses on plans about how better to “convince” the general public about the importance and relevance of the IMF’s work and does not mention the need for greater efforts to “listen” to what observers, critical or not, are saying about the Fund.
Fourth, with respect to chairs—representation on the executive board—there are two issues. Is the board too large to be effective? It may well be, but its size cannot be reduced without dramatic changes in representation, where at least half the seats are occupied by representatives from the 27 traditional advanced countries, not counting Russia, and at least 7 seats are occupied by representatives from members of the European Union. Everyone knows what needs to be done to break this logjam: dramatic consolidation of European representation. The Europeans as a group have taken this issue off the table. Although the topic has been raised from time to time by officials from individual European and from other industrial countries including my own, my impression is that no pressure in this area has been exerted by the Asian countries.
Perhaps, the issue of chairs will never be resolved until the issue of shares is fully addressed and implemented so that voting power in the Fund is substantially redistributed. Some argue that relative voting power is not an important issue because most decisions are reached by consensus or because any likely redistribution of votes in the near term is likely to be minuscule. However, it is important for three reasons: Perceptions matter; the topic has been on the front burner for more than a decade; and solemn commitments were made here in Singapore 16 months ago which if not fulfilled on schedule would decisively undermine the credibility of those all those who participated and seriously weaken the Fund. As Managing Director Strauss-Kahn stated bluntly a month ago in his statement on the work program of the executive board, “Time is running out.”
In my view, there are two tests for success on the issue of shares: First, will the new quota formula point toward a substantial redistribution of voting power away from the traditional industrial, or “advanced,” countries as a group? Second, once adopted, will the formula be used transparently to implement a significant, immediate realignment of voting power away from those countries on the order of 10 percentage points including, but not highly dependent, on a permanent boost in basic votes?
Most people participating in this high-level dialogue know the issues involved in this area, and they are better informed than I because they have had access to staff papers and datasets, which have been denied to the general public. Therefore, I do not have to remind you of the facts. I will make two comments about the status of the discussions as I understand them.
First, the set of options for the quota formula that I understand is currently on the table fails to point in the right direction. At best, the narrow range of alternatives points toward maintaining the existing voting strength of the advanced countries. Moreover, a second round of selective quota adjustments for a limited set of countries implemented via gimmicks such as filters to achieve a limited, politically correct result would fail to receive a passing grade.
This is a complex and challenging topic. Some argue it is impossible to achieve a meaningful result. That is not true. Among others, my friend and former colleague, Ralph Bryant, and I separately have advanced several alternative ways to accomplish meaningful reform of the quota formula. I do not have time or space to go into them here, but the job can be done if there is a will to do it right.
Second, if the cumulative size of the increase in total quotas is limited to less than 12 ½ percent. Even if combined with a tripling or more of basic votes, the result will not produce a “significant further realignment of members’ quotas” in line with their “relative positions in the world economy” as called for in the Singapore resolution. The reason is that a substantial proportion of the total increase would and should go to underrepresented industrial countries. To achieve the type of realignment in voting power called for in the Singapore resolution will require at least a 25 percent, and more likely a 50 percent, increase in the size of the Fund—total quotas.
In my view, every member of the Fund should receive some increase it its quota at this time. Although it is true that the Fund’s liquidity is at an all-time high, that should not be the only consideration. It is unfair and would be a mistake to limit the amounts that countries inevitably will borrow from the Fund over the next five years to the size of their quotas that were set a decade ago. Thus, it is unfortunate that the executive board has recommended to the IMF’s board of governors that the Thirteenth General Quota Review be concluded without taking any action on the overall size of quotas. This action can be overturned as part of an agreement on the overall issue of quotas, but it sends all the wrong signals.
As a concerned and informed, but outside, observer, my impression is that many leaders in Asia fail to appreciate the interest that Asian countries have in successful IMF reform in both the relevance and legitimacy dimensions. Perhaps because many Asian officials and influential thinkers are preoccupied with exciting, regional projects, Asian leaders have been passive, at best, and asleep at the wheel, at worst, about Asia’s stakes in IMF reform.
Some may see Asian integration and IMF reform as an either-or proposition—either Asian integration is advanced or the IMF is reformed, but you can not have and do not want both. In my view, nothing can be further from the truth. Successful Asian economic and financial integration depends crucially on the continued prosperity of the global economy; the principal guardian and promoter of that prosperity is the IMF.
The forces favoring the status quo are winning. If they do win, their victory will result in a progressively declining role for the Fund, are winning. It is in Asia’s interests constructively to confront those forces and to turn them back. Once substantially diminished, it will be very difficult to restore the Fund to the role it should play in promoting economic growth and maintaining financial stability for the world as a whole.
My assignment today was to comment on Jack Boorman’s excellent, comprehensive paper on the IMF reform agenda.3 I have largely ignored that assignment because I agree with almost all of what he says with two minor and one major exception.
The first minor exception is that I favor a narrower rather than a broader role for the Fund in low-income countries though I definitely see a strong substantive IMF role in those countries.
Second, I am skeptical about incorporating additional double majorities into Fund decision making with the possible exception of choosing the managing director. The problem with decision making in the Fund generally is not that decisions are taken too rapidly without sufficient consensus. The problem is that the Fund has difficulty making decisions. Double majorities would slow down, not speed up, the decision-making process.
My major difference with Jack Boorman concerns the implicit view conveyed in his paper concerning the urgency for IMF reform. He suggests at several points a need to go back to first principles. In my view, not only would such an exercise be sterile, but the resulting, substantial delay addressing the Fund’s serious twin crises would play into the hands of those who, mistakenly, want to reduce substantially and permanently the IMF’s role.
Thank you.
1. Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund, An IOE Evaluation of IMF Exchange Rate Policy Advice, 1999–2005, International Monetary Fund, May 17, 2007.
2. Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund, An IOE Evaluation of Structural Conditionality in IMF-Supported Programs, International Monetary Fund, November 27, 2007.
3. Boorman, Jack. 2008. An Agenda for Reform of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Dialogue on Globalization, Occasional Paper No. 38. New York: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.
The world economy | A stimulating notion | Economist.com
"Meanwhile debate has begun on the merits of a fiscal boost well beyond America. The IMF, traditionally a fierce guardian of budget probity, is pushing for broad fiscal loosening if the global economic outlook darkens. Monetary policy may be less effective in this downturn, argues the fund's managing director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, and many countries are in unusually strong fiscal positions. At the G7 finance ministers' gathering in Tokyo on February 9th, he said that, in addition to America, countries making up a quarter of global GDP had the potential to cut taxes or increase spending—and urged them to begin contingency planning now."
"But many others are sceptical. Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, has said bluntly that discretionary fiscal policy should be “avoided”. Joaquín Almunia, the European Commission's top man on economic matters, has given warning against “succumbing to the Sirens' songs”. Ken Rogoff, the IMF's former chief economist, says Mr Strauss-Kahn's plan seems “dubious”. A fair few economists within the fund agree."
"But should that option be exercised? Sceptical economists argue that counter-cyclical stimulus often does more harm than good. Politicians traditionally fail to recognise recessions in time, and then take too long to enact stimulus. By the time tax cuts and spending increases arrive, the downturn is often over, and the extra stimulus simply adds inflationary pressure. Moreover, since politicians are usually unwilling to tighten fiscal policy enough in a boom, any loosening of the budget reins tends to result in permanently higher debt. Others argue that temporary stimulus, even if well timed, will not work because people will hardly adjust their spending in response to a one-off tax cut."
[Read More:Economist.com]
Morgan Stanley - A US$100 Billion Supra-Sovereign Wealth Fund?
"The IMF has been asked by the G7 to come up with a set of best-practice guidelines for the sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). The irony here is that we believe the IMF itself should invest its capital more like a SWF (and more like a central bank). The IMF has one of the largest gold holdings in the world. At today’s gold prices, the 103.4 million ounces of gold that the IMF holds is worth close to US$92 billion. Arguably, this is a good time to convert its gold holdings into paper assets, for not only are gold prices high, but the IMF now also has a genuine need to generate investment income."
"In our view, the IMF possesses one of the most talented pools of economists in the world, produces top research on both developed and developing economies and still enjoys great credibility in the world. While sensible rationalisation from time to time is always welcome and justified, the ability of the IMF to operate at its full potential should never be compromised, in our view. Retrenching now is tantamount to downsizing a fire department when there is a low incidence of fire. Further, downsizing now when the global economy is down-shifting and with new and daunting policy challenges (lingering inflation, financial regulation, cross-border investment, etc.) confronting both developed and developing countries means that the timing may not be ideal."
[Read More:Morgan Stanley - Global Economic Forum]
Imf Should Not Be Allowed To Go To The Wall Just Yet (from Sunday Herald)
"What has happened is that Latin America and Asia have effectively walked away from the fund, even though they remain members."
"Meanwhile, discussions have hardly even started over IMF conditions, probably the thorniest issue of them all. These are still alive and well despite the earlier reforms, although there are signs that change might be coming. Strauss-Kahn recently stunned observers by coming out in favour of a global fiscal stimulus plan to keep America on its feet, and praised Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's aggressive interest rate cuts, all of which was a far cry from the usual IMF mantra and sounded distinctly Keynesian."
"We have to hope everyone has the sense to reach a compromise. As damaging as the years of IMF strong-arming may have been, the basic value of having an international fund to rescue currencies and stop the rot from crossing borders still stands. It is far from clear whether anything in Latin America or Asia can fulfil this role. Castro might finally be leaving office, but the IMF should not be allowed to entirely go the same way."
[Read More:Sunday Herald]
The Double Standard in Crisis Resolution - New York Times
"As the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by almost a third last month while the White House and Congress scrambled to concoct a $150 billion-plus fiscal stimulus package to loosen up the credit crunch, economic policy makers in developing countries couldn’t help but raise an eyebrow."
"This creates a lot of resentment on the other end of the world,” said Joseph Stiglitz, who was chief economist of the World Bank at the time.
"Beyond the issue of fairness, there is an irony to the disparate approaches to financial troubles in the North and South. One of the consequences of the I.M.F.’s harsh medicine was that governments in developing countries vowed never again to rely on the fund and set out to hoard piles of foreign reserves in case a crisis were to strike again."
[Read More:New York Times]
2008 Oscars
I watched today two 2008 Oscars contenders, Persepolis and There Will Be Blod. I liked Persepolis. It confirms the freshness and intellectual depth of the Iranian cinema. DDLewis may get the Oscar for best actor. I personelly go for Atonement for best movie.
Friday, February 22, 2008
César: "La Graine et le Mulet", Cotillard et Amalric récompensés - Yahoo! Cinéma France
Sacré meilleur film de l'année "La Graine et le Mulet", une chronique familiale humaniste signée par Abdellatif Kechiche, a surpris vendredi en obtenant aussi le prix du meilleur réalisateur, au nez et à la barbe de "La Môme" et d'"Un secret", favoris de la 33e édition des César . Evènement
Déjà lauréat du prix Louis-Delluc 2007 et du Prix du jury au dernier Festival de Venise, ce troisième film du franco-tunisien Abdellatif Kechiche, 47 ans, a en outre reçu les César du meilleur scénario original et du meilleur espoir féminin, décerné à Hafsia Herzi, 21 ans.
[Read More: Yahoo! Cinéma France]
Researchers Find Way to Steal Encrypted Data - New York Times
Chilling...
SAN FRANCISCO — A group led by a Princeton University computer security researcher has developed a simple method to steal encrypted information stored on computer hard disks.
The technique, which could undermine security software protecting critical data on computers, is as easy as chilling a computer memory chip with a blast of frigid air from a can of dust remover. Encryption software is widely used by companies and government agencies, notably in portable computers that are especially susceptible to theft.
[Source:New York Times]
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Economy minister admits she is 'seduced' by idea of French SWF - Business News, Business - Independent.co.uk
[Source:Independent.co.uk]
Christine Lagarde, France's economy minister, may establish a French sovereign wealth fund to counter the rising power of the state-owned funds from the developed world.
In a debate on French television, Mme Largarde called the idea "seductive" and said she was thinking of creating a French fund. Such a move would represent an astonishing volte face from the country that has been one of the harshest critics of SWFs, many of which are controlled by Middle East and Asian governments in the developing world and have become increasingly active in Europe and America.
It was just a few weeks ago that President Nicolas Sarkozy was issuing stern warnings about the danger of these "extremely aggressive" funds and joining a chorus of European parliamentarians calling for the imposition of a code of conduct on SWFs. It seems now that France could take an "If you can't beat them, join them" approach.
Tunisia 2008 growth seen slowing to 5.7 pct - IMF
TUNIS (Reuters) - Tunisian growth is seen slowing to 5.7 percent this year from 6.3 percent in 2007 as weaker European markets affect exports, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday.
But strong inward foreign investment will underpin the North African country's economic performance, the Fund added after a visit by its officials...
Read More : [Source:Reuters.com]
Monday, February 18, 2008
With Northern Rock, Crisis Enters Bailout Era - WSJ.com
[Source:WSJ.com]
In choosing to nationalize troubled mortgage lender Northern Rock PLC -- a surprise decision made over the weekend -- U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown is heading down a path rarely traveled by a developed-nation government. That path could ultimately bring the financial crisis home to regular taxpayers for the first time.
FT.com / World - Australia to screen sovereign funds
Australia is to raise scrutiny of foreign investors, the first example of a nation taking concrete steps towards controlling activities of sovereign wealth funds and state-owned companies.
The government published six principles it said were intended to “enhance transparency of Australia’s foreign investment screening regime”.
Read the rest of the article : [Source:FT.com]
and also today's FT's Editorial on SWFs :
In drawing up individual rules for dealing with sovereign funds, the risk for recipient nations is that they lose the goodwill of investing countries. A much better course is to draw up a global code of conduct.
IMF reports $3.3m net profit, up 65% - WA Business News
[Source:WA Business News]
Litigation funding provider IMF (Australia) Ltd has reported a net profit of $3.3 million for the six months to December 2007, representing a 65 per cent rise over the corresponding period last year.
Total income from continuing operations rose 37 per cent to $9.0 million over the period due to a total of eight matters concluding during the half-year, while EBITA increased by 39 per cent to $6.0 million.
The group's cash position was $31.7 million, having generated $7.8 million in the six months to December 2007.
On Friday, IMF revealed basic earnings per share of 2.91 cents for December 2007, up from 1.78 cents in the corresponding period of last year.
The company, which is jointly run between offices in Sydney and Perth, expects to report net profit before tax of at least $15 million and net profit after tax of at least $10 million for the full 2008 financial year, equating to earnings per share of just over 8 cents.
In determining how best to distribute surplus funds, IMF has implemented a share buy back, with plans to acquire about 11.3 million shares in the company equating to almost 10 per cent of the 144.4 million issued shares on issue.
Shares in the company ended the day even at 50 cents each.
Apparently there is more than one IMF. This one is a "litigation funding provider".
This is from their website imf.com.au
"IMF is a publicly listed company providing funding of legal claims and other related services where the claim size is over $2 million. IMF has brought together the major participants in the litigation funding market in Australia to become the largest litigation funder in Australia and the first to be listed on the Australian Stock Exchange."
"Our shares are listed for quotation on the Australian Stock Exchange (“ASX”) under the stock code “IMF”."
Visit Tunisia's 'Star Wars' caves - Times Online
[Source:Times Online]
My teenage son is a Star Wars fan and I'm hoping to use a trip to the troglodyte caves in Tunisia, which I believe were used in the films, as bait to get a little more enthusiastic about our next summer holiday. A week's holiday on the beach suits my wife and I the best, but are the caves are easy to visit in a day, or will we need longer? Jeremy Lenz, Plymouth
Sunday Times travel expert Richard Green responds: In fact, you are in luck. The former troglodyte dwellings in Matmata, in southern Tunisia, make a great day trip from the coastal resort of Jerba.
They are about two hours drive away, and even if you know your Chewbacca's from your Chukha-Trok's - don't worry, I had to look that up it's a fascinating day's diversion.
Most famous of the sets is the Hotel Sidi Driss, which is made from five interconnecting craters of former troglodyte dwellings. It's a bit forlorn these days, and rather kitschly cashes in on the its featuring in four of the films including playing the cantina where Ponda Baba attempted to pick up a fight with Luke Skywalker and ended up by having his arm sliced off by Obi-Wan Kenobi's light sabre. Apparently.
Most photogenic of the natural sets is the nearby Ksar Ouled Soltane. Once a four-story fortified grain store, it has now been renovated, and featured as slave quarters in the Phantom Menace.
You can do the above as a day trip from Jerba regardless of where you are staying, but to holiday in style you should stay at the Movenpick Ulysse Palace on Jerba is from £720pp, through Wigmore Holidays (020 7836 4999). The price includes flights from London to Jerba, transfers and B&B accommodation. There is a discount on this rate for children under 16 - 30 per cent if sharing their parent's room, and 25 per cent if in a room separate room from their parents.
The one-day private excursion to the troglodyte villages costs £85, which includes a driver/guide.
Other Tunisian specialists include Cadogan Holidays (0870 615 4390), or Indus Tours (020 8901 7464).
For more details, the Lonely Planet's Tunisia guide (£13.99) has useful tips on visiting the sites. Or see http://theswca.com/travel/tunisia.html for some good photographs of the sites.
'Paradise' found in McMullen - Arts & Review
[Source:www.bcheights.com"]
By: Leon Ratz
Posted: 2/18/08
Tonight, the McMullen Museum of Art at Boston College brings ancient antiquity to life as it opens its doors to Tree of Paradise: Jewish Mosaics from the Roman Empire. This long-awaited exhibition, organized by the Brooklyn Museum, features 21 mosaic tiles and a reconstruction of the beautiful ancient mosaic floor from a synagogue in Hammam-Lif, Tunisia. The exhibition also showcases 40 works from the Brooklyn Museum's Roman Art collection, including contemporary jewelry, coins, marble statues, and ritual objects, along with nine intricately woven North African Islamic Tiraz textiles.
Dr. Nancy Netzer, McMullen Museum director and professor in the art history department, said, "Superbly conceived by the Brooklyn Museum to pose larger questions about links among various faith communities in Late Antiquity, this exhibition and its public programs draw on strengths of the Boston College faculty's research and curriculum and on the University's commitment to exploring the relationship among Jews, Christians, and Muslims from antiquity to the present."
The exhibition commences on the lower floor of the museum with an introduction to the ancient world of Tunisia and its surrounding areas, with ancient objects associated with the Phoenicians, Greco-Romans, Jews, early Christians, and Muslims. Included in this collection is an ancient Phoenician funerary Stela, which features the lunar goddess Tanit of Carthage, dating from the second Century B.C., a green jasper Gnostic gem from the beginning of the first millennium depicting the ancient Egyptian deity Osiris, along with an inscription of the name of God in Hebrew, and a bronze coin of Constantine the Great dating from the fourth century C.E. Many of these objects offer a spectacular insight into the interconnectedness of early Christianity, pagan Greco-Roman traditions, and Judaism in North Africa. For instance, one item on display is an incense burner from the fifth century C.E. which was probably not produced in a Jewish context. The cup at the top of the burner, however, includes an inscription in Greek along with a depiction of a menorah, the unequivocal symbol of Judaism throughout ancient antiquity. On display directly next to the incense burner is a strikingly similar early Christian lamp from the sixth century C.E. Dr. Ruth Langer, associate professor of Jewish studies in the theology department and academic director of the Center for Christian-Jewish Learning said, "These works reveal a society where Jews were more integrated and accepted than ancient texts would suggest."
The lower floor also includes a stunning collection of nine beautiful Islamic textiles from North Africa. Featuring cotton, wool, and even silk textiles, this collection demonstrates the importance of textiles in the region for common-day and religious use. In fact, Dr. Sheila Blair, professor of Islamic and Asian Art, points out that given the beautiful design of these textiles, evidence suggests that many early Christians used them to wrap the bones and relics of saints.
The exhibition continues on the top floor with its centerpiece: the ancient mosaic floor of the Hammam Lif (ancient-day Naro) Synagogue. These mosaics were discovered by chance in 1883 by French army captain, Ernest de Prudhomme, while preparing ground for gardening. A panel in the center of the floor includes a Latin inscription that states that the mosaic floor of the synagogue was a gift by a certain Juliana. The floor is divided into four sections around the inscription, bearing beautiful images of baskets of fruit and bread, fish, a hare, a lion, a date palm tree, and two distinctively Jewish menorahs. One analysis of the mosaic floor suggests that the upper part of the floor depicts Creation, with symbols such as the giant fish (leviathan) and ox common to Jewish tradition associated with the creation vignette, while the lower part of the floor represents Paradise, with mosaic panels depicting symbols and imagery associated with the Garden of Eden. For instance, the date palm tree (the namesake of the exhibition), according to researchers at the Brooklyn Museum, might represent the Tree of Knowledge of Good and Evil of Eden depicted in the Book of Genesis. Other mosaics in Prudhomme's collection on display at the McMullen (separate from the sanctuary floor) include panels depicting fish, gazelles, a rooster, a hyena, a partridge, and perhaps even a personification of Roma. "Today, these panels provide a fascinating contrast to the much richer archaeological evidence for synagogues of this period now known from the Land of Israel," Langer said.
The exhibition opens tonight at the McMullen with a reception at 7 p.m., and will be on view through June 8 before traveling to Miami's Lowe Art Museum. So grab your Indiana Jones hat and visit the McMullen this spring to see ancient religions and cultures merge to form a truly unforgettable mosaic.
© Copyright 2008 The Heights
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Dave Hole
Biography by Sandra Brennan & Al Campbell
Australian slide guitarist Dave Hole is noted for his energetic, high-volume rock & roll/blues music and unusual playing style. Though left-handed, Hole plays guitar right-handed and developed a technique to compensate for a finger injury in which he places his fingers over the top of the neck. He also uses a pick for a slide and utilizes fingerpicking when playing normally.
Read More : AllMusic
There is room for fiscal stimulus in the budget - Livemint - India
[Source:livemint.com]
Talking to select mediapersons on the sidelines of a lecture on “Lessons from the Financial Market Crisis: Priorities for the World and the IMF”, organized by the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (Icrier), Kahn is concerned that the US downturn could cut emerging economy growth by close to 1%. Edited excerpts :
On advocating fiscal contraction before and fiscal stimulus now.
The main tool for the IMF has not been its lending capacity but what Keynes called “ruthless truth telling”. The US sub-prime crisis has indeed been a failure of supervision and regulation and they have to correct it. The IMF cannot work to change the US economy or the world economy, but will hopefully carry out some work of importance. We have an even-handed approach. If the US economy goes through pain, the world goes through some pain. A downturn in the US economy would have a lot of consequences, even with a lag.
Is IMF austerity only for the poor?-Swaminomics-Swaminathan A Aiyar-Columnists-Opinion-The Times of India
[Source:The Times of India]
"I raised this issue of double standards when Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the IMF, gave a talk in New Delhi last week. If austerity was good for imprudent Asians in 1997, i asked, isn’t it also good for the imprudent US right now? Should you not welcome a recession as a form of adjustment? Should you not burst asset bubbles in the US rather than reflate them?
Strauss-Kahn waffled and refused to give a straight answer. Instead, he talked of the need to reform the IMF, by giving a bigger say to developing countries. However, his double standards suggest that the reform has to go deeper"
Bond Insurer Seeks to Split Itself, Roiling Some Banks - WSJ.com
[Source:WSJ.com]
On Friday, FGIC Corp., holding company for the nation's third-largest bond insurer, told the New York State Insurance Department that in effect it wants to split up the business. The idea would be to create a new company to insure safe municipal bonds and for the existing one to keep responsibility for riskier debt securities already insured, such as those tied to the housing market.
The move may help regulators protect investors who have municipal bonds insured by the firm. But it could also force banks who are large holders of the other securities to take significant losses. Some banks that have been talking with FGIC in recent weeks to bolster the firm were taken aback by the announcement and could yet try to block it, say Wall Street executives.
Arcane credit market faces big test as economy slows - International Herald Tribune
[Source:International Herald Tribune]
"This is just a giant insurance industry that is under-regulated and not very well reserved for and does not have very good standards as a result," said Michael Farrell, chief executive of Annaly Capital Management in New York. "I think unregulated markets that overshadow, in terms of size, the regulated ones are a real question mark."
or
"It would be as if homeowners, facing losses after a hurricane, could not identify the insurance companies to pay on their claims. Or, if they could, they discovered that their insurer had transferred the policy to another company that could not cover the claim."
Loi sur l’initiative économique
[Source:LaPresse]
| Loi sur l’initiative économique Consécration de la liberté d’entreprendre Par Anis SOUADI Désormais, et avec l'instauration effective de la zone de libre-échange, l'économie tunisienne est appelée à opérer dans un contexte exigeant et hautement concurrentiel. Une nouvelle phase qui place notre économie face à une obligation de compétitivité totale. Certes, la Tunisie a eu le mérite, depuis quelques années déjà, de bien se préparer à de telles échéances en s’entourant d’un ensemble d’arguments assez solides, ce qui lui permet d’entamer cette étape avec assurance et optimisme. Toutefois, souci de pérennité oblige, l’économie tunisienne doit absolument renforcer encore plus ces atouts de compétitivité et multiplier les approches prospectives à même d’anticiper à temps les nouvelles tendances. La promulgation de la loi sur l’initiative économique traduit clairement une nette volonté de créer une réelle dynamique économique à travers la promotion de l’esprit du compter-sur-soi et surtout l’enracinement d’une véritable culture entrepreneuriale, qu’on ne cesse justement de qualifier de priorité nationale. D’ailleurs, le premier article stipule que « l’initiative économique constitue une priorité nationale à la consécration de laquelle œuvrent tous les acteurs économiques et sociaux dans le cadre de la garantie du principe de l’égalité des chances ». Ce qui est vraiment significatif, c’est que cette nouvelle loi cherche à mettre en place un cadre réglementaire et législatif fiable qui touche l’environnement de l’entreprise dans sa globalité. Cette loi ambitionne en fait d’améliorer significativement l’environnement de l’investissement, du financement, de la gestion, de la production et de la commercialisation. Autrement dit, c’est une loi-cadre qui cherche à élargir davantage la marge d’action des nouveaux promoteurs et à matérialiser surtout les nouvelles idées en les traduisant en projets porteurs. De ce fait, les principales dispositions ont misé sur l’assouplissement des procédures administratives à travers surtout la limitation des autorisations et leur remplacement par des cahiers des charges pour en faire ainsi de simples exceptions. Cette disposition, faut-il encore le rappeler, s’inscrit totalement dans le cadre du programme présidentiel pour la Tunisie de demain qui s’est fixé comme objectif de remplacer 90% des autorisations par des cahiers des charges d’ici 2009. Actuellement, on est à 80%. La nouvelle loi a tenu d’un autre côté à améliorer le niveau de financement de l’initiative économique. Ainsi, les dispositions retenues à cet effet autorisent le promoteur à transformer son compte d’épargne en compte d’épargne d’investissement sans qu’il soit tenu de rendre les avantages accordés au titre du premier compte. En parallèle, et pour améliorer davantage les services bancaires destinés aux promoteurs, la nouvelle loi recommande aux banques de créer une cellule chargée exclusivement de la création des petites et moyennes entreprises. Une cellule qui soit l’interlocuteur direct et le point de connexion entre les différents intervenants. Une meilleure gestion comptable Toujours au niveau du système bancaire, les dispositions de la nouvelle loi traduisent une nette volonté d’assurer la qualité totale de l’information au niveau de la centrale des risques de la BCT à travers la transmission de données fiables et précises. En d’autres termes, la nouvelle loi recommande de permettre à la BCT d’obtenir toutes les informations concernant les crédits non seulement des institutions bancaires et financières mais également des institutions de recouvrement des dettes. Une telle disposition est d’autant plus importante qu’elle est en mesure d’améliorer le classement de la Tunisie dans les rapports internationaux relatifs à l’environnement des affaires. D’un autre côté, la loi relative à l’initiative économique a accordé un intérêt tout particulier à la promotion des petites entreprises. En effet, selon les dispositions de la nouvelle loi, les promoteurs des petites entreprises ou encore des petits métiers dans l’industrie, l’artisanat et les services peuvent bénéficier de dotations remboursables, d’une prime d’investissement, de l’exonération de la contribution au fonds de promotion des logements pour les salariés pendant les trois premières années à partir de la date d’entrée en activité effective. Ils peuvent également bénéficier de l’exonération de la taxe de formation professionnelle pendant les trois premières années à partir aussi de l’entrée en activité effective. Mieux encore, la nouvelle loi a tenu à garantir une meilleure qualité aussi bien au niveau de la gestion de la comptabilité des petites entreprises qu’au niveau du dépôt des déclarations fiscales en permettant aux unités qui font appel aux centres de gestion intégrés de bénéficier, tout au long des cinq premières années, d’une réduction de 20% sur le montant d’impôt. En plus de toutes ces questions, la nouvelle loi a cherché, à la fois, à multiplier et à moderniser encore plus les espaces économiques. On relève ainsi que les investissements au titre du lancement des pépinières d’entreprises ou encore des cyberparcs ouvrent droit au bénéfice d’une prime d’investissement dans la limite de 20% du coût du projet et de l’acquisition de terrains au dinar symbolique. Ces avantages sont accordés aux projets réalisés durant la période allant de la date d’entrée en vigueur de cette loi au 31 décembre 2011 sous conditions bien entendu de la réalisation du projet, de son exploitation dans un délai maximum de deux années, à compter de la date d’obtention du terrain et de son exploitation, conformément à son objet. Sans parler des avantages accordés aux investissements au titre de la réalisation de zones industrielles (voir La Presse du 14 janvier 2008). Il est clair que cette nouvelle loi illustre clairement une nette volonté de valoriser les compétences et le savoir à travers l’aménagement d’un environnement totalement favorable à la création. Mais ce qui est réellement significatif, c’est que les avantages et les incitations accordés par cette loi ne se sont pas limités aux nouvelles créations mais ils ont touché également les entreprises déjà existantes, d’où les multiples avantages accordés aux opérations de transmission ou encore de reprise. A.S. |
Texte Integrale de la loi courtesie de investir-en-tunisie.net
Tunisia set for £5bn development
[Source:Holidaylettings.co.uk]
A £5 billion ($10 billion) development, partly aimed at attracting more visitors, is set to be built in Tunisia, it has emerged.
The Bled El Ward project will cover an area of 5,000 hectares and take the form of "a modern city", complete with tourist amenities.
It is also expected to include sports facilities along with shopping and entertainment districts, Al-Arab reports.
Water channels will provide the city with 50 kilometres of beach fronts, the news provider added.
According to Al-Arab, Ahmad Al Sayegh, the chairman of construction company Al Maabar International Investments, expects the project to be completed in five years, with building spread over several phases.
Tunisian president Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali has praised the "high standard of the project's design", the website concluded.
Tunisia already features a wealth of attractions for visitors, including Roman remains and locations used in some of the Star Wars films.
This article was brought to you by holidaylettings.co.uk, the UK's No.1 holiday home website.
16 February 2008
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Africanmanager - Bonne mention pour l’économie tunisienne, selon le FMI.
[Source:Africanmanager.com]
H.T
La délégation du Fonds Monétaire internationale, vient de publier son rapport suite à sa visite en Tunisie au mois de janvier précédant. Un rapport qui est venu maintenir les résultats positifs que l’économie tunisienne a réalisé durant l’année 2007.
Mettant en exergue la difficulté et la défavorabilité de l’environnement extérieur, le rapport a conclu que l’économie tunisienne continue de faire preuve de résilience, avec un taux de croissance appréciable pour l’exercice 2007. La croissance économique ayant pris un rythme accéléré, trouve ses sources dans les bonnes performances des secteurs agricoles, énergétique, manufacturier et des services, souligne le rapport, ce qui a permis au taux de croissance de passer de 5.5% en 2005 à 6.3% en 2007, le niveau le plus élevé durant les dix dernières années. Le rapport a aussi souligné la forte croissance de l'industrie électrique et mécanique (IME) qui a porté sa part dans le total des exportations de biens à 27 % en 2007, permettant une meilleure diversification de l'industrie manufacturière tunisienne. Cette performance de l'économie tunisienne s'est traduite par une diminution du chômage de 14,3 % en 2006 à 14,1 % en 2007.
Là où nous avons excellé le plus !!
Sur le plan de la politique monétaire que le rapport qualifie d’ « efficace », la prestation s’est notamment caractérisée par l’équilibre de l’inflation, passée de 4.5% en 2006 à 3.1% en 2007. Le rapport souligne tout de même que des pressions inflationnistes sont réapparues, en glissement annuel, l'inflation a été réduite de 5,3 % en mai 2006 [après l'envolée des cours du pétrole et de certains produits de base] à 2 % en avril 2007. La BCT, conclut le rapport à cet effet, a réagi en portant son coefficient de réserves obligatoires de 3,5 % à 5 % à fin novembre 2007. Les appréciations de l’économie tunisienne, ont permis, affirme le rapport, de consolider sa position extérieure, malgré la légère hausse du déficit du compte courant, même si ce dernier demeure soutenable.
La délégation du FMI souligne que les exportations et importations ont pris leur essor en 2007. Les importations sont presque majoritairement des biens intermédiaires et d'équipement, soutenant ainsi l'accélération de la croissance. Mais cela n’a pas empêché le déficit du compte courant de s’élargir, pour passer de 2 % du PIB en 2006 à 2,5 % en 2007, suite à la détérioration des termes de l'échange, causée par la hausse des cours des matières premières. Ce solde a été compensé par un afflux important d'IDE.
Toujours selon ce dernier rapport du FMI, les réserves extérieures de la Tunisie ont augmenté de 1 milliard de dollars en 2007 pour atteindre 7,8 milliards, représentant 4,6 mois d'importation de biens et services, même si la Tunisie a consolidé sa position extérieure grâce à des remboursements anticipés financés par les ressources de privatisation, réduisant ainsi sa dette extérieure totale, y compris la dette a court terme, de 58,3 % du PIB en 2006 à 55,6 % en 2007, Le déficit budgétaire devrait ainsi rester, selon l'équipe du FMI, globalement identique à celui de 2006, malgré la hausse des cours mondiaux des matières premières. La politique budgétaire prudente a permis de contenir le déficit à 3 % du PIB, en dessous de l'objectif de 3,1 % fixé dans la loi de finances 2007.
Les perspectives pour 2008.
Pour les perspectives de l’économie tunisienne en 2008, le rapport de la délégation du FMI, affirme que la croissance devrait rester robuste à 5.7%. Le ralentissement probable de 6.3% à 5.7% de la croissance tunisienne, sera selon le rapport, dû à la croissance exceptionnelle du secteur énergétique, à l’expiration des quotas de l’Union Européenne pour les exportations chinoises de certains produits textiles ainsi qu’à une politique monétaire restrictive. Par contre, le rapport estime que l’élan économique et les grands projets d’investissement devraient limiter ce ralentissement. Quant aux pressions inflationnistes, notamment l’inflation importée, le rapport estime qu’elles vont persister. La politique prudente de la BCT et son intention d’agir davantage, si les pressions inflationnistes persistent, devraient contenir l'inflation à 4 % en moyenne. Cette prévision tient également compte de l'augmentation probable des prix des produits administrés si les prix mondiaux restent élevés.
La délégation du FMI prévoit qu’en 2008, le compte courant de la balance des paiements pourrait accuser une légère détérioration si les prix du pétrole et des produits de base devaient rester au voisinage de leur niveau record enregistré récemment. Le rapport prévoit un ralentissement du rythme des exportations dû notamment au fléchissement de la croissance de l'économie mondiale. Les importations connaîtront probablement une croissance relativement forte, en raison de la persistance des cours élevés du pétrole et des matières premières et du besoin important en biens d'équipement et en matières premières. Par conséquent, une légère détérioration du compte courant à 2,7 % du PIB en 2008 est prévue par le FMI. Néanmoins, la diminution tendancielle de la dette extérieure se poursuivra avec un taux d'endettement extérieur passant à 52,9 % du PIB en 2008.
La Politique économique en Tunisie
Le rapport du FMI se pose des questions d’ordre général sur les politiques économiques suivies par la Tunisie. La première question évoquée a été celle de la surliquidité persistante et des pressions inflationnistes croissantes. La mission du FMI appuie, souligne le rapport, la politique monétaire restrictive de la BCT et explique son soutien par le fait que, face à la situation de surliquidité et aux pressions inflationnistes qui ont resurgi durant le second trimestre de 2007, la BCT a effectué des opérations de ponction de liquidité avant de relever le coefficient de réserves obligatoires. "Étant donné les délais d'ajustement de l'économie aux changements de politique monétaire, il est important de persévérer dans le perfectionnement des outils de prévision afin de pouvoir mieux anticiper les pressions inflationnistes et agir à temps" affirme le rapport.
Plus de flexibilité dans le taux de change, conseille le FMI.
Pour ce qui est de la politique de taux de change, le rapport affirme que la politique de taux de change restera ancrée sur l'objectif de moyen terme d'un taux de change flottant. "Il est souhaitable d'affiner la coordination entre la politique monétaire et la politique de change. Dans ce contexte, une flexibilité accrue du taux de change est nécessaire pour mieux maîtriser les risques inflationnistes" conseille le FMI.
La mission du FMI soutient en tous les cas la politique budgétaire prudente de la Tunisie qui a pu maintenir un déficit de 3 % en dépit d'un environnent international défavorable. Elle conseille cependant, pour faire face aux tensions inflationnistes, que la politique budgétaire vise un déficit en deçà de 3 %. Cela aidera à soutenir la politique monétaire restrictive et assurer une meilleure flexibilité à la politique budgétaire, trouve le rapport.
S'assurer des IDE des grands projets.
La mission appuie aussi la stratégie d'économie d'énergie activement poursuivie par les autorités tunisienne. Elle recommande cependant, d'examiner aussi des options alternatives, moins coûteuses que les subventions à la Caisse Générale de Compensation, pour soutenir le pouvoir d'achat des familles à faible revenu. Evoquant ensuite les grands projets d'investissement qui se multiplient en Tunisie, l'équipe du FMI conseille que "les autorités s'assurent que ceux-ci n'entrainent pas de nouveaux éléments de passif éventuel (contingent liabilities) qui viendraient s'ajouter à l'encours de garanties totalisant 8,9 % du PIB en 2007.
La mission évoque dans son rapport d’autres politiques tunisiennes. En premier lieu, la réforme du secteur bancaire qui suit son cours, la libéralisation des opérations courantes et du compte capital qui a progressé en 2007 où les plafonds d'allocations de devises pour les opérations courantes ont été relevés et l'autorisation de change pour les investisseurs non-résidents en Tunisie, hormis dans le secteur du commerce de distribution, a été supprimé. Il y a aussi les contraintes sur les flux d'investissement et participations entre personnes ou sociétés non-résidentes et résidentes qui seront allégées. Pour la politique de la libéralisation des échanges commerciaux, qui a tant favorisé l'ouverture de l'économie tunisienne, elle va de l'avant, indique aussi le rapport. Les exportations et les importations de biens, quant à eux, ont augmenté, passant de 74 % du PIB en 1995 à 98 % en 2007, permettant ainsi une amélioration sensible du taux de couverture des importations qui est passé de 70 % à 90 %. Outre les IDE qui, en pourcentage du PIB, ont presque doublé durant la même période.
La mission a aussi salué l’engagement de la Tunisie dans le rôle actif qu’elle ne cesse de jouer dans le processus de l'intégration du Maghreb. Les mesures du plan d'action élaboré pendant cette conférence visent notamment à améliorer le climat des affaires et à favoriser les collaborations entre les investisseurs privés des pays de la région. Concernant les échanges commerciaux intra-maghrébins la Tunisie, conclut le rapport, vient d'adopter en 2008 la reconnaissance mutuelle des certificats de conformité aux normes techniques avec la Libye.
Les recettes des société pétrolières, compenseront le CGC !
Parlant des points forts de l’économie tunisienne, le rapport de la délégation du Fonds Monétaire International, n’a pas manqué de mentionner les quelques lacunes que connait l'économie tunisienne. Il mentionne en premier lieu que la hausse record des prix du pétrole et des produits de bas ont et auront un effet sur l’économie, et ce par le rôle qu’elles jouent et qui a amené les autorités à adopter une loi de finances rectificative en décembre, qui prévoit une augmentation des subventions à la Caisse Générale de Compensation (CGC) de 0,6 % du PIB, portant le total à 1,3 %. La hausse des prix à la pompe en mai et octobre 2007 a permis de maintenir les subventions pétrolières à 1 % du PIB. L'augmentation de recettes provenant des sociétés pétrolières, de recettes non fiscales et de droits de douanes, dus à la forte croissance des importations, devraient plus que compenser les dépenses additionnelles. Les remboursements par anticipation devraient faire passer la dette publique de 53,9 % du PIB en 2006 à 51,5 % en 2007 !
Friday, February 15, 2008
The Big Picture | How SubPrime Really Works
A funny representation of the messy sub-prime or How SubPrime Really Works
[Source:bigpicture.typepad.com]
US secretly met Iran banking officials - Yahoo! News
By MATTHEW LEE and ANNE GEARAN, Associated Press Writers
1 hour, 29 minutes ago
A U.S. official met secretly with Iranian banking officials and senior government aides who oppose punishing the Islamic nation for not doing enough to stop money laundering and terrorism funding, The Associated Press has learned.
The talks last month in Paris took place despite the Bush administration's near-absolute ban on formal U.S.-Iran contact. They also occurred against the backdrop of Tehran's attempts to avert the imposition of new U.N. sanctions over its suspect nuclear program.
The United States co-chaired the meeting with Italy and was represented by Daniel Glaser, the Treasury Department's deputy assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes, a senior U.S. official said. Representatives of several other nations also attended.
The meeting was part of the Bush administration's attempts to ramp up international pressure on Iran to halt atomic activities that could lead to the development of nuclear weapons. The administration also wants Iran to stop its support for groups the U.S. has designated as terrorist organizations, the official said.
Iran was represented by senior officials from its central bank, known as Bank Markazi, and its government, according to a Middle Eastern diplomat familiar with the session. Officials spoke on condition of anonymity to describe confidential close-door discussions.
[Source:Yahoo! News]
The Treasury and State departments had no comment on the talks. They took place around the time the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Zalmay Khalizad, was scolded for violating administration policy by appearing onstage in his official capacity with the Iranian foreign minister at a World Economic Forum conference in Switzerland.
The United States and Iran have had no diplomatic relations since the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the taking of hostages at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. Formal contact between the two countries is extremely limited, although meetings have occurred, most recently between the U.S. and Iranian envoys to Iraq on security matters.
Several U.S. officials noted that the United States often participates in multilateral meetings with Iran, notably involving U.N. agencies of which Iran is also a member. Glaser is expected to attend a larger session of the Financial Action Task Force, or FATF, later this month.
The circumstances of the most recent, smaller meeting were unusual, however. The session was apparently called at Iran's request, and it amounted to a hearing for Iran's answer to international claims that it is complicit in money laundering and bankrolling terror.
The talks that Glaser co-chaired were held at the Paris headquarters of the FATF, a 34-nation body that deals with threats posed to the international financial system by money laundering and support for terrorism.
The task force issued a warning about Iran in October and is expected to consider further steps at the meeting later this month. Such measures could include a toughening of the October warning or placing Iran on an international financial blacklist of noncooperative countries that could cripple its ability to do business abroad.
There are currently no countries on the FATF noncooperative list, which has been used as a tool to press several nations, mostly small island states, to reform their banking sectors.
Iran is not a member of the FATF. Most of the world's major economic powers belong to the organization, including China and Russia, which have traditionally opposed sanctions. Diplomats say Tehran has grown increasingly concerned about the effects of a U.S.-led push to isolate its economy.
That concern was behind its decision to send a delegation to Paris to block or blunt any new action the task force might take at its Feb. 24-29 board meeting, diplomats said.
The FATF's Oct. 11 warning on Iran said the country's lack of comprehensive regulations regarding money laundering and terrorism support was a "significant vulnerability" in the world financial system. Because of that risk, it advised banks in its member states to use "enhanced due diligence" in transactions with Iranian institutions.
Shortly after that, the Bush administration noted the FATF move when it announced it was expanding its own sanctions on Iran, which now include bans on dealings with state-owned Banks Sepah, Melli, Mellat and Saderat, and parts of the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Defense Ministry.
Since then, Washington has boasted that the U.S. and existing U.N. sanctions, along with the task force warning, have taken a significant toll on Iran's economy, particularly on its unemployment and inflation rates, and raised pressure on the government.
"Both unemployment and inflation rates in Iran are on the rise, with independent experts estimating the unemployment rate to be roughly twice the 11 percent claimed by the regime," Deputy Treasury Secretary Robert Kimmitt said last week.
In the Feb. 8 address, he also praised the FATF for "confirming the extraordinary systemic risks that Iran poses to the global financial system."
___
Associated Press Economics Writer Jeannine Aversa contributed to this report.
This is a follow-up dated 2/16/08 : Iran shrugs off secret US meeting - Yahoo! News
FT.com - Bangladesh bank offers loans to US poor
Bangladesh’s Grameen Bank has made its first loans in New York in an attempt to bring its pioneering microfinance techniques to the tens of millions of people in the world’s richest country who have no bank account.
The bank’s entry into the US, its first in a developed market, comes as mainstream banks’ credibility has been hit by the mortgage meltdown and many people are turning to fringe financial institutions offering loans at exorbitant interest rates.
Grameen has lent $50,000 in the past month to groups of immigrant women in Jackson Heights in New York’s borough of Queens. During the next five years, it plans to offer $176m in loans within New York city, and then expand to the rest of the US.
[Read More:FT.com]
Grande braderie sur la Tunisie et le Maroc
Uncroyable! Une semaine a Hammamet a 299 €, tout compris.
Le Club Marmara Hammamet Beach est à -40% : 299 € TTC au lieu de 429 € au départ de Lyon le 22 mars.
Prix séjour jusqu'au 30 mars 08
Vacances d’Hiver : séjour d’une semaine maximum.
PRIX SÉJOUR
7 nuits en chambre double comprenant : les vols spéciaux A/R, la demi-pension (1/4 de bouteille de vin de 70 cl ou 1/2 bouteille d’eau inclus), transferts, taxes aéroport et frais de dossier (60 €), hausse carburant (20 €).
Non inclus : assurance assistance/rapatriement option 1 (7 €) ou sécurité totale option 2 (25 €), prestations non mentionnées et dépenses personnelles.
[Source:vancancespratiques.net]
Thursday, February 14, 2008
FMI Tunisie : ‘’L'économie tunisienne continue de faire preuve de résilience…’’
2008-02-13
Lundi, Le FMI a publié son rapport fait à la suite d'une visite effectuée au mois de janvier par une une mission du Fonds Monétaire International (FMI).
Dans ce rapport publié lundi sur le site du Fonds Monétaire International, la mission a conclu que :
‘’L'économie tunisienne continue de faire preuve de résilience, affichant un taux de croissance appréciable en 2007, malgré un environnement extérieur défavorable. Il n'en demeure pas moins que les défis pour maintenir ce taux de croissance et réduire davantage le chômage tout en maîtrisant les équilibres macroéconomiques restent importants.''
Cette mission intérimaire s'est concentrée sur les questions d'ordre macroéconomique à court terme dans un contexte marqué par la flambée des prix mondiaux du pétrole et des produits de base, ainsi qu'un ralentissement probable de la croissance de l'économie mondiale à la suite des retombées de la crise dans le secteur immobilier américain.
...
Selon le FMI, la politique monétaire efficace a permis de ramener l'inflation moyenne de 4,5 % en 2006 à 3,1 % en 2007, mais des pressions inflationnistes sont réapparues.
Selon ce même rapport, le déficit budgétaire devrait rester globalement identique à celui de 2006, malgré la hausse des cours mondiaux des matières premières.
‘’ La politique budgétaire prudente a permis de contenir le déficit à 3 % du PIB, en dessous de l'objectif de 3,1 % fixé dans la loi de finances 2007. La hausse record des prix du pétrole et des produits de base a amené les autorités à adopter une loi de finances rectificative en décembre, laquelle prévoit une augmentation des subventions à la Caisse Générale de Compensation (CGC) de 0,6 % du PIB, portant le total à 1,3 %. La hausse des prix à la pompe en mai et octobre 2007 a permis de maintenir les subventions pétrolières à 1 % du PIB. L'augmentation de recettes provenant des sociétés pétrolières, de recettes non fiscales et de droits de douanes — dus à la forte croissance des importations — devrait plus que compenser les dépenses additionnelles. Les remboursements par anticipation devraient faire passer la dette publique de 53,9 % du PIB en 2006 à 51,5 % en 2007.’’
[Source:Babnet.com]
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