FMI Tunisie : ‘’L'économie tunisienne continue de faire preuve de résilience…’’

2008-02-13
Lundi, Le FMI a publié son rapport fait à la suite d'une visite effectuée au mois de janvier par une une mission du Fonds Monétaire International (FMI).
Dans ce rapport publié lundi sur le site du Fonds Monétaire International, la mission a conclu que :

‘’L'économie tunisienne continue de faire preuve de résilience, affichant un taux de croissance appréciable en 2007, malgré un environnement extérieur défavorable. Il n'en demeure pas moins que les défis pour maintenir ce taux de croissance et réduire davantage le chômage tout en maîtrisant les équilibres macroéconomiques restent importants.''

Cette mission intérimaire s'est concentrée sur les questions d'ordre macroéconomique à court terme dans un contexte marqué par la flambée des prix mondiaux du pétrole et des produits de base, ainsi qu'un ralentissement probable de la croissance de l'économie mondiale à la suite des retombées de la crise dans le secteur immobilier américain.
...

Selon le FMI, la politique monétaire efficace a permis de ramener l'inflation moyenne de 4,5 % en 2006 à 3,1 % en 2007, mais des pressions inflationnistes sont réapparues.


Selon ce même rapport, le déficit budgétaire devrait rester globalement identique à celui de 2006, malgré la hausse des cours mondiaux des matières premières.
‘’ La politique budgétaire prudente a permis de contenir le déficit à 3 % du PIB, en dessous de l'objectif de 3,1 % fixé dans la loi de finances 2007. La hausse record des prix du pétrole et des produits de base a amené les autorités à adopter une loi de finances rectificative en décembre, laquelle prévoit une augmentation des subventions à la Caisse Générale de Compensation (CGC) de 0,6 % du PIB, portant le total à 1,3 %. La hausse des prix à la pompe en mai et octobre 2007 a permis de maintenir les subventions pétrolières à 1 % du PIB. L'augmentation de recettes provenant des sociétés pétrolières, de recettes non fiscales et de droits de douanes — dus à la forte croissance des importations — devrait plus que compenser les dépenses additionnelles. Les remboursements par anticipation devraient faire passer la dette publique de 53,9 % du PIB en 2006 à 51,5 % en 2007.’’

[Source:Babnet.com]

Daily Times -The IMF as global financial anchor

By Age Bakker and Perry Warjiyo

Today’s financial market turmoil has exposed weaknesses in the current global financial system, of which many were known but went unaddressed. This lack of action reflects the increased complexity and linkages of the global financial system, and the absence of an effective anchor for financial stability. Restoring financial market confidence has had to rely on liquidity injections by major central banks. While this appears to have been successful, questions remain as to whether the turmoil could have been averted and its impact mitigated.

The IMF can play an important role in this regard, owing to its truly global perspective – one that encompasses both advanced economies and emerging and developing economies, which are increasingly integrating into the global financial system. Moreover, the IMF does not focus on financial markets per se, but has unique expertise on the linkages between the real and financial economy. Finally, the IMF’s perspective is universal, looking across sectors and markets.

So far, the Fund has not fully exploited its unique position, because it has often been passive in reaching out, giving clear messages, and making recommendations to its members. But the current financial market turmoil has shown that there are regulatory and supervisory gaps and poorly understood international linkages that call for a global response.

We believe that the IMF needs to move decisively on financial stability issues and be more proactive to help prevent and mitigate future crises. The IMF should work closely with the Financial Stability Forum, the Bank for International Settlements and other relevant international bodies. To strengthen the Fund’s financial stability role, we propose action in three related areas.

First, the IMF should promote financial stability through multilateral surveillance. It should be positioned at the center of international financial markets and provide an analytical platform, not only for central banks and finance ministries, but also for regulators, standard setters, and market participants.

In particular, the Fund should enhance its understanding of the links between supervisory frameworks and macroeconomic conditions, including balance-of-payments and exchange-rate developments, by leveraging the wealth of cross-country information and expertise that it acquires through missions to its 185 members. This would enable it to identify macroeconomic threats to stability and encourage best practices for supervisors and regulators. Building on its research, the IMF could contribute more to the debate on the macroeconomic and financial implications of private equity, hedge funds, and sovereign wealth funds, and develop practical recommendations to enhance their contribution to international financial stability.

Second, the IMF should promote financial stability through bilateral surveillance. It needs to rethink how to address financial stability in its day-to-day work with members. Financial sector analysis should become fully integrated into the IMF’s surveillance activities.

The IMF should also be more proactive and speak with greater candor in systemically important countries, where shortcomings in financial supervision and crisis management have appeared. It should assist emerging economies in shaping sound domestic financial markets. These steps would require the IMF mission teams to become more diverse, bringing financial sector expertise in addition to the traditional macro and fiscal skills. The Fund needs to hire more financial sector experts, relying less on academic professionals.

Third, the Fund should assist members who have well-defined programs for liberalizing and integrating their economy into the global financial system. It should consider developing appropriate liquidity instruments to give confidence to emerging market economies that may be affected by a crisis beyond their control, rather than forcing them to build up ever-larger reserves or resort to regional arrangements for self-insurance.

Action in these three areas would help to create a multilateral institution with the authority and expertise to advise countries on supervisory and regulatory issues of systemic importance. The current turmoil highlights the international financial system’s need for such an institution. The members that we represent – advanced and emerging countries in Asia and Europe – want to play a role in re-establishing a strengthened IMF at the heart of the international monetary system.


Age Bakker and Perry Warjiyo are Executive Directors of the IMF from the Netherlands and Indonesia, respectively, and represent 25 countries in Asia and Europe.

[Source:Daily Times]